Trend following

Trend Following: A Beginner's Guide to Riding the Waves of Crypto

Welcome to the world of cryptocurrency trading! It can seem daunting, but this guide will introduce you to a simple, yet powerful strategy called *trend following*. This is a great starting point for new traders because it focuses on identifying and capitalizing on existing momentum, rather than trying to predict the future. This guide assumes you understand the basics of what Cryptocurrency is and how to set up a Crypto Wallet.

What is Trend Following?

Imagine surfing. A surfer doesn't create the wave; they *ride* the wave. Trend following in crypto is similar. We identify a direction the price is already moving – an *uptrend* (price going up) or a *downtrend* (price going down) – and then enter trades in that direction. We’re not guessing if the price *will* go up; we’re reacting to the fact that it *is* going up.

Think of Bitcoin (BTC) for example. If Bitcoin has been consistently making higher highs and higher lows over the past few weeks, that suggests an uptrend. A trend follower would look for opportunities to *buy* Bitcoin, expecting the trend to continue. Conversely, if Bitcoin has been making lower highs and lower lows, that suggests a downtrend, and a trend follower might *sell* or *short* Bitcoin (more on that later).

Key Terms You Need to Know

• **Uptrend:** A series of higher highs and higher lows. The price is generally moving upwards.
• **Downtrend:** A series of lower highs and lower lows. The price is generally moving downwards.
• **Support:** A price level where the price tends to find buying interest and stop falling. Think of it as a ‘floor’.
• **Resistance:** A price level where the price tends to find selling pressure and stop rising. Think of it as a ‘ceiling’.
• **Breakout:** When the price moves *through* a significant support or resistance level. This can signal the start of a new trend.
• **Volume:** The amount of a cryptocurrency that is traded over a period of time. Higher volume often confirms the strength of a trend. See Trading Volume for more information.
• **Long Position:** Buying a cryptocurrency, expecting its price to increase.
• **Short Position:** Borrowing a cryptocurrency and selling it, expecting its price to decrease. You profit if the price goes down. This is more advanced, so start with long positions.
• **Stop-Loss Order:** An order to automatically sell your cryptocurrency if it falls to a certain price. This limits your potential losses. See Risk Management for details.
• **Take-Profit Order:** An order to automatically sell your cryptocurrency when it reaches a certain price. This locks in your profits.

Identifying Trends

The most basic way to identify a trend is by looking at a price chart. You can find charts on most Cryptocurrency Exchanges like Register now, Start trading, Join BingX, Open account and BitMEX.

Here's a simple breakdown:

• **Visual Inspection:** Look for patterns. Are the peaks (highs) getting higher? Are the troughs (lows) getting higher? That’s an uptrend. The opposite indicates a downtrend.
• **Moving Averages:** These smooth out price data to make trends easier to see. A common strategy is to use a 50-day and 200-day moving average. If the 50-day MA is *above* the 200-day MA, it's generally considered an uptrend. See Technical Analysis for more on moving averages.
• **Trendlines:** Draw lines connecting a series of higher lows (in an uptrend) or lower highs (in a downtrend). These lines can act as support or resistance.

Practical Steps for Trend Following

1. **Choose a Cryptocurrency:** Start with well-established cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) or Ethereum (ETH). They tend to have clearer trends than smaller, more volatile coins. 2. **Choose an Exchange:** Select a reputable Cryptocurrency Exchange that offers the cryptocurrency you want to trade. 3. **Analyze the Chart:** Look for a clear uptrend or downtrend. Use the methods described above – visual inspection, moving averages, and trendlines. 4. **Enter a Trade:**

   *   **Uptrend:** Buy the cryptocurrency when the price pulls back slightly (a small dip) towards a support level or a trendline.
   *   **Downtrend:**  (More advanced) Short the cryptocurrency when the price bounces back slightly towards a resistance level or a trendline. *Beginners should avoid shorting until they are comfortable with the basics.*

5. **Set a Stop-Loss:** Place a stop-loss order just below a recent low in an uptrend, or just above a recent high in a downtrend. This protects you if the trend reverses. 6. **Set a Take-Profit:** Set a take-profit order at a level where you're happy to lock in your profits. This could be based on a resistance level (in an uptrend) or a support level (in a downtrend). 7. **Monitor Your Trade:** Keep an eye on the price and be prepared to adjust your stop-loss or take-profit levels as the trend evolves.

Trend Following vs. Other Strategies

Here's a quick comparison of trend following with a couple of other basic strategies:

Strategy	Description	Risk Level	Time Commitment
Trend Following	Riding existing price movements.	Moderate	Moderate
Day Trading	Making multiple trades within a single day, trying to profit from small price fluctuations.	High	High
Buy and Hold	Buying a cryptocurrency and holding it for the long term, regardless of short-term price movements.	Low to Moderate	Low

Important Considerations

• **False Breakouts:** Sometimes, the price will *appear* to break through a support or resistance level, but then reverse direction. This is called a false breakout. Using volume analysis can help you identify false breakouts – a breakout with low volume is often suspect.
• **Whipsaws:** These are sudden, sharp reversals in price that can trigger your stop-loss orders. This is why it's important to use reasonable stop-loss levels and understand the potential for volatility.
• **Trend Strength:** Not all trends are created equal. Stronger trends are more likely to continue. Look for trends that are confirmed by high volume.
• **Diversification:** Don't put all your eggs in one basket. Spread your investments across multiple cryptocurrencies. See Portfolio Management.

Resources for Further Learning

• Candlestick Patterns: Understanding these patterns can help you identify potential trend reversals.
• Fibonacci Retracements: A tool used to identify potential support and resistance levels.
• Bollinger Bands: Another tool for identifying potential overbought or oversold conditions.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): An indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages.
• Relative Strength Index (RSI): An indicator that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions.
• Trading Psychology: Understanding your own emotions is crucial for successful trading.
• Backtesting: Testing your strategies on historical data.
• Dollar-Cost Averaging: A strategy for reducing risk by investing a fixed amount of money at regular intervals.
• Market Capitalization: Understanding how large a cryptocurrency is.
• Blockchain Technology: Understanding the underlying technology of cryptocurrencies.

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⚠️ *Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency trading involves risk. Only invest what you can afford to lose.* ⚠️